Compared with foreign countries, the fuel ethanol market is huge, and it is currently monopolized by biomass ethanol. The coal -to -ethanol is expected to become the next key development direction of the next coal chemical industry after coal -making oil, coal -to -gas, coal -to -olefin, and coal -to -ethylene glycol, and directly compete for biomass ethanol with its significant cost advantage.
Core view
my country’s fuel ethanol market has huge space, and in the long run, it has nearly 9.4 million tons of demand gap. Fuel ethanol can make gasoline more sufficient, at the same time, good explosion resistance, and has been widely promoted globally. In 2016, my country’s fuel ethanol production was only 2.6 million tons, compared with the United States’ 42.66 million tons and 17.44 million tons in Brazil, which had huge room for development. In the middle period, the “13th Five -Year Plan” of the Energy Bureau proposed that by 2020, my country’s fuel ethanol output was 4 million tons, an increase of 54%from the current increase. Ethanol demand gap. In addition, ethanol import tariffs and pilot promotion of ethanol gasoline will be favorable for domestic fuel ethanol demand.
The cost advantage of coal fuel ethanol is obvious, with a cost of 300 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton than the cost of glycotic ethanol. The two process routes of the fuel ethanol splitter ethanol and coal-to-ethanol, calculated the cost of biomass ethanol at 4700-5600 yuan (G1 generation 4709 yuan/ton, G1.5 generation 5275 yuan/ton, G2 generation 5588 yuan/ton); while coal-made ethanol cost is generally between 4000-4200 yuan (IFP synthetic gas direct hydrogen refreshing 4071 yuan/ton, Portal chemical acetic acid direct hydrogenation of 4084 yuan/ton, extended hydrogen hydrogen acid ester hydrogenation 4201 yuan/ton, medium -soluble technology hydrogen acetate 4104 yuan/ton), even after considering factors such as food ethanol subsidies and consumption tax reduction, coal -to -ethanol still has a significant cost advantage, with a cost difference of at least about 300 yuan/ton. The maximum can reach about 800 yuan/ton.
Biomantic ethanol subsidies have declined, and coal -made ethanol is expected to emerge with cost advantage. In the future, biomass ethanol may face the following risks: (1) Fiscal subsidies have continued to decline, and grain ethanol subsidies have fallen from 1883 yuan/ton in 2005 to 2016 without subsidies, and profit may be damaged; (2) Agricultural supply -side reform driver For corn destocking, the price of corn will increase the cost of corn ethanol if the bottom of the corn is bottomed out. In contrast, coal -to -ethanol still has a competitive advantage even without subsidy. In addition, the production capacity ratio of biological ethanol and coal -made ethanol in the future is about 3: 1. We judge that competition between coal -to -ethanol companies will not be too fierce, and it is expected to replace larger biological ethanol with a cost advantage.
Post time: Mar-15-2023